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Dutch, German prompt, front-month gas prices ease on bearish fundamentals

http://www.chemnet.com   Mar 03,2015 Platts
Prompt and front-month gas prices posted some losses on a relatively well supplied system in continental Europe in the first session of the week, tracking plunging UK NBP prices equivalent.

By midday UK time, TTF day-ahead contracts last dealt 70 euro cent lower compared with Friday's close, at Eur23.00/MWh, while corresponding GASPOOL and NetConnect were down by 25 and 10 euro cent at Eur23.10/MWh and Eur23.25/MWh, respectively.

Network operator Gassco showed that there is an ongoing minor maintenance underway at the Sleipner gas field in Norway, which is expected to end in the coming weeks.

The volume impact is estimated around 5 million cu m/day, and a 3 million cu m/day reduction on the SEGAL pipeline to Scotland.

Real-time Norwegian flow rates into Emden-Dornum on the Dutch/German border stood at 142.2 million cu m at around midday London time, Gassco said, which is around 12.2 million cu m down from flow rates the same time Friday.

Current bearish fundamentals, with relatively low demand and good overall supply, are pushing down prompt prices despite recent news of lower output from the Dutch Groningen gas field and ongoing tensions in Ukraine which have raised fears of interruptions to Russian gas supplies.

Flows to the Netherlands have picked up over recent days, a Bentek Energy report said. Net balance flows increased from 3 million cu m Friday to 29 million c m Monday.

The initial Dutch nominations in the system looked long on gas by 29 million cu m.

Dutch production was nominated at only 149 million cu m in the morning but physical out-turn flows are actually expected to work out higher, closer to 200 million cu m.

Dutch storage was nominated to flow 70 million cu m Monday morning, but its physical out-turn for storage flows could be considerably lower.

LNG sendout was nominated at 10 million cu m, which represents a higher level than the same time last year.

Meanwhile in Germany, domestic demand was indicated at 283 million cu m in the morning, falling back significantly from last week.

Net exports to the Czech Republic in the morning were indicated at 45 million cu m while Russian flows to Germany through Nord Stream of 45 million cu m/day remained at half last year's flow rates.

CustomWeather forecast Amsterdam temperatures 1 degrees Celsius above the normal seasonal high and low of 8/2, while Berlin was forecast 2 C above seasonal norms of 7/minus 1 C.

By midday UK time, April TTF last dealt 95 euro cent down session on session at Eur22.50/MWh, while corresponding GASPOOL and NetConnect front month contract were not yet appearing on the screens yet.
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