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European gas: Dutch, German curve markets pare back April 21 gains

http://www.chemnet.com   Apr 25,2016 Platts
The Dutch and German curve markets gave back some of the previous session's sharp gains Friday aided by bullish crude oil market sentiment subsiding.

By around midday London time, TTF Winter 16 and Summer 17 both last dealt 22.5 euro cent lower on the day at Eur14.325/MWh and Eur13.85/MWh.

Closer in, TTF May was down by 15 euro cent at Eur12.375/MWh. German GASPOOL and NetConnect May contracts were last seen bid at Eur12.475/MWh and Eur12.55/MWh, respectively, compared with Thursday's closes of Eur12.65/MWh and Eur12.675/MWh.

Crude oil prices lost ground in early European trading Friday despite Saudi oil officials saying a production freeze agreement would potentially be on the agenda at OPEC's next meeting in early June.

ICE June Brent last dealt at around $44.76/b compared with $45.14/b at 1630 London time Thursday.

On the prompt, TTF day-ahead dealt down 30 euro cent day on day at around midday London time at Eur12.50/MWh.

However, German spot prices gained ground ahead of the shift to cooler weather from this weekend.

By around midday London time, GASPOOL and NetConnect day-ahead last dealt 12.5 euro cent and 2.5 euro cent higher on the day at Eur12.90/MWh and Eur12.60/MWh.

This meant GASPOOL spot extended the previous session's premium to NetConnect by 10 euro cent to 30 euro cent.

CustomWeather forecast temperatures in Amsterdam at 2 degrees Celsius below seasonal norms Friday, with temperatures falling back to 4 C and 5 C below norms Saturday and Sunday, respectively, and 4 C below norms Monday.

Platts analytics unit Eclipse Energy forecast at around midday London time domestic consumption in the Netherlands of 80.6 million cu m Friday and 93.7 million cu m Monday.

German domestic consumption was forecast at 349.1 million cu m Tuesday and 338.5 million cu m Wednesday.

Eclipse's short-term demand model is calculated from latest demand, temperature and wind speed outturns in addition to deviations between weather forecasts and these last outturns. Dutch domestic production was nominated at 119.2 million cu m for Friday, compared with a 108.1 million cu m allocation Thursday.

Real-time Norwegian flow rates into Emden-Dornum on the Dutch/German border stood at just under 145 million cu m/d at midday London time, according to network operator Gassco.

Gassco's latest update reports the outage at the Skarv field at a 8.8 million cu m/d volume reduction after a previous expectation for Friday of 5.4 million cu m/d.

Net storage withdrawals into sites connected to the Dutch network were nominated at 13.5 million cu m Friday, compared with a 6.1 million cu m net injection allocation Thursday, according to Eclipse.
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